Update - >4% moves, Scenario analysis, Trading Strategy, Australia and Pain Trade

4% moves - Last few times the U.S. stock market was > 4% in one day was the 10th, 12th and 23rd March 2009 - ie the start of the big rally.

Scenario analysis - Sad to say, since i'm a fundamentalist myself, but as I've said several times on the blog, fundamental analysis is not only not in play, it's dead, at least right now. Earnings forecast, estimate changes, all meaningless now. Right now only scenario analysis applies, and it will stay that way for a while.

Trading Strategy - Time to express views through the options - and to risk as little capital as possible, and be long extremes. One thing is for sure - it is NOT the next few weeks that you will earn the big easy money.

Australia, not Asia - Australia is a Western country, but happens to be ahead of us timezonewise. In addition the country's stock market's also heavy on commodity, so I follow it because it can be an indication of how European stock markets behave when they open. Tokyo, China can perhaps point out the direction too, but these countries' economies differ more from Europe and the EU than Australia does.

Pain Trade - The biggest pain trade is probably still that we turn straight down like lightning. The second biggest pain trade is that we have a melt-up and go 10% in a few weeks without any time to enter again. The only non-pain trade right now is that we go into a tight range with an every second day's market where you have time to lick the wounds and think - but that's probably exactly what's not going to happen.