Lucky for me I'm mostly into diamonds
The gold speaks to you
The gold speaks to you. The message is simple and clear. Take cover in good faith. It will not be pretty. Unfortunately. Gold managed to break through the December 2009 high - but we still have a long way to go before the inflation-adjusted high
Lucky for me I'm mostly into diamonds
Lucky for me I'm mostly into diamonds
Update - >4% moves, Scenario analysis, Trading Strategy, Australia and Pain Trade
4% moves - Last few times the U.S. stock market was > 4% in one day was the 10th, 12th and 23rd March 2009 - ie the start of the big rally.
Scenario analysis - Sad to say, since i'm a fundamentalist myself, but as I've said several times on the blog, fundamental analysis is not only not in play, it's dead, at least right now. Earnings forecast, estimate changes, all meaningless now. Right now only scenario analysis applies, and it will stay that way for a while.
Trading Strategy - Time to express views through the options - and to risk as little capital as possible, and be long extremes. One thing is for sure - it is NOT the next few weeks that you will earn the big easy money.
Australia, not Asia - Australia is a Western country, but happens to be ahead of us timezonewise. In addition the country's stock market's also heavy on commodity, so I follow it because it can be an indication of how European stock markets behave when they open. Tokyo, China can perhaps point out the direction too, but these countries' economies differ more from Europe and the EU than Australia does.
Pain Trade - The biggest pain trade is probably still that we turn straight down like lightning. The second biggest pain trade is that we have a melt-up and go 10% in a few weeks without any time to enter again. The only non-pain trade right now is that we go into a tight range with an every second day's market where you have time to lick the wounds and think - but that's probably exactly what's not going to happen.
Scenario analysis - Sad to say, since i'm a fundamentalist myself, but as I've said several times on the blog, fundamental analysis is not only not in play, it's dead, at least right now. Earnings forecast, estimate changes, all meaningless now. Right now only scenario analysis applies, and it will stay that way for a while.
Trading Strategy - Time to express views through the options - and to risk as little capital as possible, and be long extremes. One thing is for sure - it is NOT the next few weeks that you will earn the big easy money.
Australia, not Asia - Australia is a Western country, but happens to be ahead of us timezonewise. In addition the country's stock market's also heavy on commodity, so I follow it because it can be an indication of how European stock markets behave when they open. Tokyo, China can perhaps point out the direction too, but these countries' economies differ more from Europe and the EU than Australia does.
Pain Trade - The biggest pain trade is probably still that we turn straight down like lightning. The second biggest pain trade is that we have a melt-up and go 10% in a few weeks without any time to enter again. The only non-pain trade right now is that we go into a tight range with an every second day's market where you have time to lick the wounds and think - but that's probably exactly what's not going to happen.
Homage to the macro man
It is with great sadness that I note that macro man is now putting down the keyboard. Second only to BCA Research, his blog has been a true source of intelligence in the never ending information overflow that drowns our industry every day.
For those of you who haven't had the pleasure of reading his stuff, quickly pay a visit to http://macro-man.blogspot.com/ while his stuff there is still relatively hot.
For those of you who haven't had the pleasure of reading his stuff, quickly pay a visit to http://macro-man.blogspot.com/ while his stuff there is still relatively hot.
The assets of the sucker of last resort
I suppose that it's only me and Grayson who cares but I can not help but post this. The exceptional Alan Grayson again. Probably one of the few honest and upright politicians who seek truth and justice. Here in a stunning display in Congress. Well worth listening carefully to and reflect. Cred to Grayson, and let's audit the FED!
Now I'm in my sweats and gonna hit the gym.
Now I'm in my sweats and gonna hit the gym.
Millions, no, billions of euro bail out
Guess the ECB does not want to make the same mistakes that the FED and U.S. State did with the first TARP money. Perhaps 420bn had been enough, but so that no one should dare "game" the system they added 150bn, and to make sure that people would really shut up they added another 150bn on top.
More (less than) fun facts about China
- There are nearly 40 million more men than women in China. Still, it is mighty popular to abort female fetuses in China.
- China has the world's largest shopping mall. Located in Dongguan, with a vacancy rate of 99% since its opening in 2005!
- Close to 10 000 Chinese inhabitants end up in so-called "black prisons" each year. Illegal and secret prisons where people (mostly dissidents) are held prisoners for months and subjected to physical mistreatment and psykist.
- If the average Chinese person spent his entire annual income, an annual salary, to buy space in Beijing he could barely get over 1 sq. Average wages per capita is 2000 yuan / month. The average price per sq in Beijing is at 26 000 yuan.
- China has about half a billion pigs. It is more than the next 43 (!) pork-producing countries have together. U.S. has about 65 million units.
- The Chinese together consume about 3 million cigarettes per minute.
- 80% of all "American" toys are manufactured in China.
- It is planning a "New Orient Express", a fast train to go between Beijing and London. trip expected to take two days. The flight takes about 10 hours.
- China's huge Gobi desert is now as large as Peru and adding an area 60 of Manhattans every year.
- Beijing Olympic Games was the most expensive so far been with an estimated cost around EUR 25 billion. Twice as much as the previous most expensive Olympic Games. The ongoing World Expo in Shanghai is expected to be even more expensive and cost approximately EUR 33 billion.
- China has the world's largest shopping mall. Located in Dongguan, with a vacancy rate of 99% since its opening in 2005!
- Close to 10 000 Chinese inhabitants end up in so-called "black prisons" each year. Illegal and secret prisons where people (mostly dissidents) are held prisoners for months and subjected to physical mistreatment and psykist.
- If the average Chinese person spent his entire annual income, an annual salary, to buy space in Beijing he could barely get over 1 sq. Average wages per capita is 2000 yuan / month. The average price per sq in Beijing is at 26 000 yuan.
- China has about half a billion pigs. It is more than the next 43 (!) pork-producing countries have together. U.S. has about 65 million units.
- The Chinese together consume about 3 million cigarettes per minute.
- 80% of all "American" toys are manufactured in China.
- It is planning a "New Orient Express", a fast train to go between Beijing and London. trip expected to take two days. The flight takes about 10 hours.
- China's huge Gobi desert is now as large as Peru and adding an area 60 of Manhattans every year.
- Beijing Olympic Games was the most expensive so far been with an estimated cost around EUR 25 billion. Twice as much as the previous most expensive Olympic Games. The ongoing World Expo in Shanghai is expected to be even more expensive and cost approximately EUR 33 billion.
Sunday circus
Well, what do you know? This morning it was announced an coordinated action to combat escalating financial market tensions triggered by worldwide fears over public finances.
ECB finally announced that it would intervene in the government bond market, something which it had said it wasn't considering, only last Thursday. While this is positive, it's also an indication of how much worse the ECB are now judging the situation to be. Probably the eventful Thursday and Friday trading helped a bit.
Also, the European Union and the IMF agreed on an emergency funding facility worth as much as €720bn ($930bn, £625bn) in loan guarantees and credits to the eurozone.
Guess we're likely to see a rally today, less the market deems this too little too late, but asia is up 1.6% now so it seems good. It'll be a while before fundamentals are back in play again, but at least we'll be getting out of defensives today.
Miss Christian was at the circus yesterday with my niece and nephew. Concluded that all in all they have revenues of about GBP 60 000 per show at the most. No wonder the sea lion wrangler has to man the popcorn booth in the intermissions.
ECB finally announced that it would intervene in the government bond market, something which it had said it wasn't considering, only last Thursday. While this is positive, it's also an indication of how much worse the ECB are now judging the situation to be. Probably the eventful Thursday and Friday trading helped a bit.
Also, the European Union and the IMF agreed on an emergency funding facility worth as much as €720bn ($930bn, £625bn) in loan guarantees and credits to the eurozone.
Guess we're likely to see a rally today, less the market deems this too little too late, but asia is up 1.6% now so it seems good. It'll be a while before fundamentals are back in play again, but at least we'll be getting out of defensives today.
Miss Christian was at the circus yesterday with my niece and nephew. Concluded that all in all they have revenues of about GBP 60 000 per show at the most. No wonder the sea lion wrangler has to man the popcorn booth in the intermissions.
The sound of the IPO window breaking
No matter what happens to the stock market from here you can at least be sure that the massive IPO month flagged for by all the brokers in May are now guaranteed not going to happen. That crashing sound you just heard was the IPO window not closing but being completely broken. Apart from the past week's price action, it has been extremely difficult to see why investors would desire to put new money into healthy fresh new stories when many existing midcaps completely implodes. Appetite to buy "Tomorrow Stories" have been very close to zero. And seems likely to stay that way for a while.
Me, I just got back from a day trip to the archipelago. Salt stains, but no sunburn though.
Me, I just got back from a day trip to the archipelago. Salt stains, but no sunburn though.
Friday flight to safety
Just came back from a company visit earlier this afternoon. Seems like a huge waste of time doing your homework on the fundamentals in this sentiment driven market. Or maybe it’s the opposite, the right time to do your homework on the fundamentals. Made it into the office just to see the market collapse on the screens the last 2 hr of trading in europe. Nasty. Just the fact that 290 000 new jobs in the US, which was a surprise to the expected 190 000, didn’t gain any traction in the market must have scared some people numb.
It rather seems like everyone wants out of risky assets over the weekend, so we’re glad to be deep in the deepest safe haven of all, the 10y US govt.
Now I’m gonna head out to dinner. Outside everyone already seems to have left the office.
It rather seems like everyone wants out of risky assets over the weekend, so we’re glad to be deep in the deepest safe haven of all, the 10y US govt.
Now I’m gonna head out to dinner. Outside everyone already seems to have left the office.
Greece Euro Crosstalk
The rescue package to the greeks is nothing more than a enourmous bailout of french and german banks. Here Hugh Henry advocates soverign bankruptcy. Watch here
Acropolis now
People are in a real glass-half-empty funk at the moment. But with the increasing likelyhood that ECB will step in and buy eurozone govt bonds, the market makes a minirally after a couple of days of severe declines. Market fundamentals do not justify the sentiment-led price declines, but it’s hard to believe that the greek gamechanger waiting with the finale around the corner will be solved in a way that will result a positive outcome for stocks.
This just proves that fundamentals are not back in play just yet. ECB press conf later today. Stay tuned.
This just proves that fundamentals are not back in play just yet. ECB press conf later today. Stay tuned.
